BottleRock | Backstage Passes | The View From #4

A few weeks ago, Seth and I escaped to BottleRock. The music was great, but honestly, the best part may have been the atmosphere. Somewhere along the way we accidentally found ourselves in a United Airlines backstage lounge and suddenly the entire weekend felt a lot more VIP than we had paid for. I love when life hands you an upgrade you weren’t expecting.

Back in San Francisco, May was one of the busiest months I’ve had in quite a while. New listings, new clients, and plenty of movement across the city. In the middle of it all, I learned that I ranked as the #4 individual real estate agent in San Francisco by sales volume for 2025/26. Most of the time, I don’t spend much energy thinking about rankings, but I’ll admit this one got my attention. Now I’m wondering what it might take to chase down #1. 😉

More importantly, San Francisco continues to outperform many of its peer markets. Buyers are showing up, quality homes are being rewarded, and there is a sense of momentum that has been building for months. With several anticipated IPOs and liquidity events on the horizon, the second half of the year could get even more interesting.

I’ve always believed that betting against San Francisco is a losing strategy. The city has a way of reinventing itself, attracting ambitious people, and creating opportunity when others least expect it.

Let’s go, San Francisco!

June 2026: The Market That Keeps Running Out of Homes

San Francisco entered summer with 215 active single-family listings. In May 2025, there were 393. In May 2022, at the prior market peak, there were 502. The city is producing record prices in part because it’s producing so few available homes, and May 2026 made that constraint more visible than any month in recent memory.

Against that backdrop, the median house sales price reached $2,200,000 in May, a new all-time high and a 17% increase from May 2025. Price per square foot hit $1,194, up 13.7% year over year and above all prior seasonal highs for this time of year. Houses sold in an average of 18 days, the fastest market time in five years, with a sold-to-list ratio of 124.4%.

For the record, that means the average SF house sold for nearly a quarter over asking. Buyers came prepared for that competition. Sellers with well-positioned homes benefited from it.

A Record Built on Constrained Supply

Pending single-family home sales, at 276, now outnumber active listings (215). When demand is running ahead of supply by that margin, overbidding becomes essential for buyers. 

New listings have not arrived at a pace that changes the equation. Sellers who watched the spring data have reason to move, and some have. The net effect hasn’t been a meaningful increase in available supply. Buyers are competing for a pool that keeps contracting.

On price per square foot, May’s $1,194 is particularly notable in historical context. After four years of downward pressure that began post-2022, the 2026 trend line has reversed and is now running above every prior seasonal high. The Compass data puts it plainly: after four years of decline, 2026 shows a new trend.

Condos: Stable at 101.4%

The condo market’s recovery has been building since early 2026. March data showed condos “turning a corner.” April showed Panhandle condos selling at 136.5% of list and multiple neighborhoods clearing 118% of asking. May’s data shows a market that has absorbed that momentum and maintained it. 

The May median condo price reached $1,330,000, up 3% from a year ago. That’s a smaller gain than houses, but the trajectory is clear. Condo prices per square foot hit $1,166 in May, climbing since January after six years of sustained declines. Condos are now selling at 101.4% of list. Buyers are paying over asking, a pattern that was essentially absent from this segment through most of 2023 and 2024.

Volume confirms the condo momentum. Condo sales in May closed at a pace 14% above May 2025, and pending sales are running 35% ahead of last year. Active condo inventory stood at 584 units at month’s end, down 26% from May 2025’s 905. Condos are also moving faster at 39 days on market in May, compared to ranges that ran as high as 87 days in 2023 and 2024.

What the Neighborhood Numbers Say

On a 12-month rolling basis through May, the premium end of the market looks like this: 

Presidio Heights houses are averaging $7,850,000 at $1,609 per square foot.

Pacific Heights houses are averaging $7,250,000 at $1,625 per square foot. 

Cow Hollow houses are averaging $6,300,000 at $1,701 per square foot. 

Sea Cliff had the sharpest year-over-year move, with a 12-month median of $5,850,000 representing a 24.8% gain. The sample there is small with 11 closed sales, but a figure that size tends to reflect real demand at the top of the market, not statistical noise.

The Marina’s 12-month median sits at $4,915,000 at $1,669 per square foot. 

Noe Valley, the city’s busiest market by transaction count, is averaging $2,800,000 at $1,490 per square foot over 119 closed sales, with 126 pending.

On the condo side: Presidio Heights condos are averaging $2,475,000 at $1,319 per square foot.  

Cow Hollow condos come in at $1,757,500 at $1,363 per square foot. 

Pacific Heights condos are at $1,730,000 at $1,213 per square foot.

The Economic Backdrop

Rates moved higher through May, reaching 6.6%, up from the 5.99% low earlier in the year. The Compass full-year forecast for 2026 is 6.4%, so current levels are tracking slightly above expected. A sustained push into the upper 6s is the scenario most likely to slow purchase demand for rate-sensitive buyers. In the neighborhoods that define the SF luxury market, that sensitivity is limited; cash transactions and jumbo financing dominate above $3M, and the rate environment has been largely irrelevant to outcomes at that level throughout this cycle.

The stock market recovered strongly through April and May after first-quarter volatility driven by war news and tariff uncertainty, with the S&P reaching new all-time highs. For Bay Area buyers, equity recovery translates directly into purchasing power and confidence.

Bay Area employment is growing again, averaging roughly 2,000 new jobs per month over the past year after five years of net losses. San Francisco home price appreciation is also running well ahead of every surrounding Bay Area county tracked by Compass, a reversal from years when Peninsula and suburban markets frequently outpaced the city. 

SF rents are rising faster than any other major U.S. market nationally, which tightens the rent-versus-buy calculation for would-be buyers, particularly in the condo segment. Migration patterns reversed in 2025; inbound to the Bay Area now exceeds outbound for the first time in years, with Seattle and Austin both running net positive to San Francisco.

Ready, Set, Summer

The market’s setup going into summer is tight inventory, record house prices, an equity environment that supports high-end demand, and a condo recovery that’s now three months deep. The anticipated IPO pipeline is worth watching; when liquidity events arrive, they move fast and concentrate in the neighborhoods where this report’s top numbers are already being set. 

Rates at 6.6% are the headline risk. If they push meaningfully higher, some rate-sensitive buyers step back. But at current levels, with inventory this constrained and demand this active, the structural imbalance still favors sellers.

If a transaction is on your radar this summer, the data argues for moving before fall rather than after. I’m happy to walk through what I’m seeing right now. Let’s get your strategy in place.