Two Czech Tourists Walk Into a Broker Tour…. | Helena’s August Market Update
August has been a mix of family fun and full-throttle real estate. I’ve been playing host to my 76-year-old mom and 11-year-old niece on their first California trip together. Only one speaks English — I’ll let you guess which one. 😉
Both, it turns out, love Tuesday broker tour, so naturally they’ve been tagging along between plenty of other California adventures.
Meanwhile, I’m knee-deep in property prep for my fall portfolio, and so are many of my colleagues. Hopefully that means more inventory is coming for today’s very real buyer demand.
Case in point: earlier this week, a charming but somewhat dated $4M home on the south slope of Pacific Heights received 15 offers and sold for over $6.6M — north of $2,000/sq. ft.
The buyers are out there.
If selling has been on your mind, this is a very good time for us to have that chat.
August 2026: Fewer Homes Than Ever, and Buyers Still Showing Up
San Francisco had 156 active house listings at the end of July. A year ago it had 264. Condo inventory dropped even more, down 42.5% year over year to 417 units. This city is in a tight supply, and the July numbers make more sense once you start there.
The median house price came in at $2.05 million, up 25.2% from a year ago. Closed sales dropped. Days on market ticked up. Read the month-over-month figures alone and you might think the run had ended. Read them against a supply base that has contracted by more than 40% in 12 months, and a different picture comes into focus.
Houses Took Their Usual Summer Breath
The median house sale price finished July at $2.05 million, down 4.7% from June and up 25.2% year over year. Price per square foot reached $1,181, a 19.6% annual gain, slipping 4.0% from June.
July does this in San Francisco. The pullback from the June and May peaks follows a seasonal pattern this market repeats almost every year. What separates this July from previous ones is the annual comparison. A 25% year-over-year gain in median price is not a market losing steam.
Closed sales came in at 173, down 11.7% from July 2025 and 35.4% from June. Pending sales at 150 fell 11.2% year over year. Fewer transactions closed because fewer homes were available to buy. Inventory finished the month at 156 active listings, down 40.9% year over year despite a marginal 2.6% uptick from June.
Days on market averaged 28, still 16.2% faster than a year ago. Homes are moving well by any historical standard for this city.
The Condo Market Outperformed Houses for the First Time This Year
Something notable happened in July. While house prices declined month over month, condo prices went up.
The median condo sale price reached $1.25 million, a 3.1% gain from June and 13.6% higher than a year ago. Closed condo sales hit 276, up 24.9% from July 2025. That annual increase in volume runs directly counter to the house market, where closed sales declined. Pending condo sales rose 15.7% year over year.
Price per square foot came in at $1,103, up 13.1% annually. Condos averaged 43.3 days on market, a 38% improvement from a year ago.
The condo recovery that started in March has now been building for five straight months, and July was the first month it moved ahead of the house market on a month-over-month basis. Condo inventory is also the tightest it has been, down 42.5% year over year and 9.9% from June to 417 active listings.
For buyers who have been treating condos as the more approachable entry point into this city, that window is narrowing.
What the Aggregate Numbers Miss
The Pacific Heights sale I mentioned above closed in the same stretch the citywide data showed a pullback. Both are accurate. Monthly medians reflect seasonal timing and a shrinking pool of available homes. Individual transactions reflect what happens when a well-positioned property meets buyers who have capital and conviction. Fifteen offers on a single listing tells you more about current demand than any median can.
Rates Are Elevated and Largely Beside the Point Here
Mortgage rates ended July near their highs for the year, which pulled some momentum out of buyer demand nationally. San Francisco has been running on a different engine. Sales in this city are being driven by wealth creation rather than financing costs, and the AI boom has concentrated that wealth here in a way that has kept demand strong regardless of what the 30-year fixed is doing.
Rates remain elevated on inflation concerns, with bond markets under pressure from energy prices, tariffs, and government spending. A meaningful cooling in the labor market would ease that pressure, though the national economy is currently sitting in a low-hire, low-fire pattern that keeps unemployment low and job creation modest simultaneously.
Job creation in San Francisco specifically continues to fuel housing demand. AI companies here are hiring aggressively, and relocations for work remain one of the most reliable drivers of purchase activity in this city.
Heading Into Fall
The fall listings coming together now across the city should bring more inventory to a market that badly needs it. Whether it arrives in enough volume to shift the competitive dynamic is the question worth watching over the next 60 days.
For sellers, the fall window is opening under conditions that still favor you significantly.
For buyers, more listings should mean more options, though competition for the best properties will stay intense.
If a move is on your radar before the end of the year, this is the right moment to have that conversation. Let’s talk.
