San Francisco Market Report

February 2024

Introduction:

Open house attendance has spiked, with more new listings hitting the market and a growing pipeline of upcoming listings outpacing last year’s pace.

Additionally, the number of homes going under contract is rising quickly, signaling a reawakening market. Thanks to significant improvements in interest rates, the stock market, and consumer confidence since October, there’s a noticeable increase in engagement from both buyers and sellers, leading to a faster-moving market.

However, the inventory of house listings remains significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels, creating a tight dynamic between demand and supply in this segment. A key question for 2024 is whether homeowners, who have been reluctant to list their homes since mid-2022, will decide to sell. In contrast, the condo market has a much higher inventory, with condo listings being 130% higher than house listings, even though the sales numbers for condos and houses are similar. Yet, indications suggest the condo market is also warming up in 2024, with market conditions differing greatly across neighborhoods.

January’s statistics, reflecting closed sales, including sales prices, volume, days on market, and overbidding percentages, will largely be based on listings that entered into contract in late 2023, during the slowest market period of the year. Spring, which is typically the busiest selling season, is expected to bring significant changes to these metrics. In the Bay Area, the spring selling season can start as early as February, depending on the weather.

Market Dynamics & Seasonality

New Listings Coming on the San Francisco Market

The San Francisco real estate market typically sees a dip in new listings in December, but activity starts to increase sharply in the new year.

This pattern continued in January 2024, with new listings rising approximately 14% from January 2023. This increase would be even more pronounced if “coming-soon” listings were accounted for.

Line graph showing new property real estate listings coming onto the San Francisco market between 2021 and 2024

*According to Realtor.com Research, the data on listings is collected from their site. While this information is considered reliable, it’s important to remember that it may contain errors and is subject to future updates. The figures do not include “coming-soon” listings and should be viewed as approximate.

Supply and Demand

Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract)

Monthly Trends

The pattern of offers being accepted each month significantly demonstrates the impact of seasonal trends on supply and demand within the market. Starting in mid-January, there’s a rapid increase in activity, reaching its highest point in the spring. Comparing year to year, January 2024 saw a more than 30% increase in the number of accepted offers.
The number of listings entering into contract is a key indicator of buyer demand but also reflects the availability of new listings on the market.

Line graph showing San Francisco property listings accepting offers (going into contract) from 2021 to 2024

*This data, covering houses, condos, and townhouses going into contract, is collected from the NorCal MLS Alliance and analyzed by Infosparks. Although considered reliable, the information may contain errors and is open to adjustments. All figures are estimates, with the most recent month’s data being provisional and subject to updates with late-reported activity

Market Fluidity

San Francisco Residential Market Insights

Market Dynamics by Price Segment/Property Type

As of February 1, 2024, both active and upcoming listings, as well as those in contract, show that listing and sales activity usually sees a significant uptick in the first quarter. This pattern aligns with statistics gathered from sales reported in 2023. Additionally, the Months Supply of Inventory, which estimates the time it would take to sell all current listings at the 2023 monthly sales pace, provides insights into the market’s fluidity.

Table showing San Francisco Residential Market stats including market dynamics by house price segment/property type.

*This information is sourced from data reported to the NorCal MLS Alliance and analyzed by Infosparks. While the data is generally considered reliable, it’s important to acknowledge that it may contain errors and is open to future revisions. Not all market activity is captured in MLS reports, making all numbers approximations. It’s also worth noting that statistics based on past activity might not directly predict future trends, especially in segments with low sales volume where outliers can skew perceptions. For clarity, some figures may be rounded.

Overbidding & Seasonal Demand Trends

Percentage of Home Sales Closing Over List Price in San Francisco

The percentage of homes selling for more than their listed prices varies with seasonal demand trends. This metric serves as a delayed reflection of market activity, indicating that the data from January primarily showcases the outcomes of the slower December market.

*This analysis is based on sales data reported to the NORCAL MLS® ALLIANCE and analyzed by Infosparks, focusing on the proportion of transactions closing at prices above their final listed amounts. While this information is sourced from reliable data, potential inaccuracies are acknowledged, and revisions may be necessary. All provided figures are estimates and subject to adjustments based on sales reported later.

Market Activity

San Francisco Over/Under Bidding

Average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage

The ratio of the average sales price to the original list price varies seasonally and serves as a lagging indicator, meaning the January figures tend to reflect the market’s slower activity from December. This pattern highlights how quickly or slowly homes are selling relative to their initial listing prices.

In San Francisco’s real estate market, overbidding — selling for more than the list price — is far more prevalent among houses than condos. A ratio of 100% indicates that homes, on average, sell at their listed price.

Line graph showing a comparison between houses and condos in San Francisco, showing the difference between property sales price vs. original listing price

*The information for this analysis is sourced from sales reported to the NorCal MLS Alliance and analyzed by Infosparks. While the data is based on reliable sources, it is subject to potential inaccuracies and future revisions. All numbers mentioned are estimates and may be adjusted with sales reported at a later date.

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