San Francisco Market Report

April 2024

Introduction:

Q2 2024 is shaping up to be the most active market since the pandemic’s peak.

As we’ve entered the spring selling season, significant shifts in supply and demand since the start of the year have intensified, leading to a noticeable increase in the market’s competitiveness and activity. With the current trends and on-the-ground experiences of new listings coming up, negotiations, and homes entering into contracts, there’s a strong likelihood that home prices will continue to rise significantly into the second quarter of 2024.

Macroeconomic Conditions: Over the past eight weeks up to early April, the average weekly interest rate for a 30-year conforming loan has varied between 6.74% and 6.94%—an increase from January, yet still considerably lower than the rates last fall. Meanwhile, stock market indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have been reaching new all-time highs, significantly impacting household wealth. Following a notable surge in December and January, consumer confidence has reached its highest level in nearly three years. Monthly inflation rates have stabilized, fluctuating between 3.1% and 3.3% since October. Although these rates exceed the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, there is still a widespread anticipation of rate cuts by the Fed later this year. Additionally, the latest unemployment figures, both nationally and in San Francisco, stand at 3.8%, maintaining near historic lows.

Market Recovery

San Francisco Condo Prices: Downtown vs. Non-Downtown

In 2024, San Francisco's median condo sales prices have seen a dramatic recovery, now showing an increase on a year-over-year basis.

3-Month Rolling, Median Condo Sales Prices since 2005

San Francisco’s condo market shows a notable contrast between two key areas since 2005. The downtown region, encompassing the South of Market and Civic Center areas, is a hub for new, large-scale condo developments, office complexes, and high-tech industry employment. The median sales prices in this vibrant, urban core are depicted by an orange line. Conversely, the rest of San Francisco is characterized by its smaller, older condo buildings, situated in more residential and less urban settings. The median sales prices for these areas are represented by a white line, offering a comparative view of condo pricing trends across different urban landscapes within the city.

Line graph showing San Francisco Condo prices comparing downtown to non-downtown properties

*The 6-month rolling median values for condo sales, as reported to the NorCal MLS Alliance and analyzed by Infosparks, might have inaccuracies and are open to updates. These figures exclude sales from new projects not listed on MLS. All values are estimated and subject to adjustments based on sales reported later.

San Francisco House Price Trends

Quarterly Median House Sales Prices from 2012 to Now

Looking at the first quarter of 2024, San Francisco's median house sales price saw a year-over-year increase of 7.5%.

The median sales price helps us understand the middle ground of the market, showing us the price point at which half the homes sold for more and half for less. This number, while providing a broad overview, covers a wide spectrum of individual sale prices.

It’s typical to see these prices fluctuate with the seasons, often reaching their highest point in the second quarter of the year. Keep in mind, any shifts in sales prices usually follow market changes by about three to six weeks.

Bar chart showing San Francisco Home Price Trends

*This data, sourced from the NORCAL MLS® ALLIANCE and analyzed either by Broker Metrics or Infosparks, is estimated and may be updated, especially as late sales reports come in.

Market Dynamics & Seasonality

San Francisco Over/Under Bidding

Overbidding, where sales prices exceed the original asking prices, has notably been more prevalent in house sales compared to condo sales.

In March 2024, the average sales price for houses, represented by a yellow line, was 9% above the asking price. In contrast, condos, shown by an orange line, sold for an average of 1% below the asking price.

Line graph showing average sales price compared to original list price of homes in San Francisco.

*This information is based on sales data reported to the NorCal MLS Alliance and analyzed by Infosparks. While the data is considered reliable, it’s important to note that it may contain inaccuracies and is subject to updates. All provided figures are estimates and could be adjusted based on sales that are reported later.

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