San Francisco Demographics by Zip Code

The below charts and table are based upon U.S. Census surveys from 2010 – 2013. Please note that zip codes often contain neighborhoods of widely different demographics. For example, 94115 includes Pacific Heights, one of the most affluent areas of the city, as well the Western Addition, which is much less affluent. A number of SF zip codes are like this and when mixing very different neighborhoods together, you often end up with statistics that don’t really apply to any of them. Zip codes are relatively blunt instruments for demographic investigation, but we still found the analysis to generate interesting, new insights into San Francisco, our ever-changing city. Each chart illustrates the data for 10 to 12 SF zip codes. Below the charts is a complete table of all the data collected. The neighborhoods associated with zip codes in the charts and table below are simply representative labels; other neighborhoods are contained within each zip code and many are divided between two or more zip codes.

A statistical breakdown by household income, education, homeownership, foreign-born population, household size, age and other criteria.
June 2014 Report
The below charts and table are based upon U.S. Census surveys from 2010 – 2013. Please note that zip codes often contain neighborhoods of widely different demographics. For example, 94115 includes Pacific Heights, one of the most affluent areas of the city, as well the Western Addition, which is much less affluent. A number of SF zip codes are like this and when mixing very different neighborhoods together, you often end up with statistics that don’t really apply to any of them. Zip codes are relatively blunt instruments for demographic investigation, but we still found the analysis to generate interesting, new insights into San Francisco, our ever-changing city. Each chart illustrates the data for 10 to 12 SF zip codes. Below the charts is a complete table of all the data collected. The neighborhoods associated with zip codes in the charts and table below are simply representative labels; other neighborhoods are contained within each zip code and many are divided between two or more zip codes.
Median Household Income 
Many factors impact this statistic: household size, level of education, percentages of homeowners vs. renters, whether the rental units are subject to rent control, median resident age, quality of housing, and cost-of-housing issues besides rent control. The South Beach-Yerba Buena zip code takes top place for median household income in San Francisco. Interestingly, it is at the bottom of the ranking for average household size. This zip code is dominated by newer condo projects, many of them at the top of the price scale and the rental units here, which make up over half the housing, are typically not under rent control. The second ranked zip code for income is quite different: the St. Francis Wood-Miraloma Park area has a completely different ambiance, very few condos or renters, older residents and bigger households. And number 3 is the Presidio Trust zip code with no homeowners, all renters but no rent control, and younger residents than either of the first two. All 3 of the top zip codes, however, have very high percentages of residents with bachelor’s, graduate and professional degrees.
SF_Zip-Income
Foreign-Born Percentage of Population  Of major metro areas, San Francisco ranks 4th in the country in percentage of foreign-born residents. In three of the city’s zip codes, foreign-born residents constitute a small majority.
Zip-Code_Foreign-Born
Residents with Bachelor’s, Graduate & Professional Degrees  San Francisco ranks 2nd in the country for percentage of residents with bachelor’s degrees and ranks 3rd for percentage of residents with graduate or professional degrees. Not surprisingly, when looking at zip codes, educational attainment and household income typically go hand in hand.
Zip-Code_Education-Degrees
Percentage of Housing Units Owner-Occupied  San Francisco has approximately 70% more housing units occupied by renters than by homeowners. By zip code, homeownership percentages in the city range from 0% (100% renters) to over 80%.
Zip-Code_Homeownership
Average Size of Household  San Francisco has the lowest percentage of children of any major U.S. city and 38% of residents live alone. This brings the city’s average household size down, however the statistic varies widely by zip code, ranging from 1.6 to 3.6 residents per household.
Zip-Code_Household-Size
Median Age of Residents 

The youngest zip codes in San Francisco are those that are 100% rental: the Presidio and Treasure Island. The oldest zip code is the area of the North Waterfront and Barbary Coast, just north of the financial district along the Embarcadero. Second oldest is Chinatown (47 years) and the third oldest is the St. Francis Wood-Miraloma Park area. 
Zip-Code_Avg-Age

Median sales prices and dollar per square foot values may be affected by number of diverse factors, 
and how they apply to any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis. 


Zip Code Demographics Data Table 

Zip codes in the table below are in order of median household income. 
Zip-Code_Demographics_Table_Complete
SF_Zip-Code_Map

Of San Francisco Real Estate Gold & Apple Stock

May 2014 Report

On January 1, 2012, you woke up to find $200,000 on your bedside table, which you decided to invest. Then, on May 2, 2014, you sold your investment. Below are approximate returns depending on where you placed your cash.

Investment-Return_RE-vs-Stock

Assumptions:

Gold: you bought at $1566 per ounce and sold at

May 2014 Report

On January 1, 2012, you woke up to find $200,000 on your bedside table, which you decided to invest. Then, on May 2, 2014, you sold your investment. Below are approximate returns depending on where you placed your cash.

Investment-Return_RE-vs-Stock

Assumptions:

Gold: you bought at $1566 per ounce and sold at $1300 per ounce: Bad timing.

Certificate of Deposit: 1% annual interest rate; interest taxed as ordinary income: It seemed like the safe thing to do in an uncertain world.

Stock purchases: Apple stock jumped 46% and the S&P 500 50%; plus an estimated dividend yield of 5%; profit taxed as long-term capital gains. (No transaction costs included in calculation.)

Home purchase: $200,000 down-payment on $1 million home; 35% home-price appreciation per Case-Shiller; 2% closing costs on purchase and 7% on sale deducted from gain. No capital gains tax due to the $250,000/$500,000 exclusion for sale of primary residence. The estimated $28,000 reduction in loan principal was not included in gain, as it pertains to monthly home payments made after initial investment.

It is assumed that the net monthly home cost – principal, interest, property taxes and insurance, after tax deductions and reduction in loan principal – at an estimated $3250/month, was comparable to cost of renting. This has generally been true in San Francisco due to high rents and low interest rates.

There are 3 big reasons why real estate dramatically outperformed the stock market, though both markets boomed: 1) leverage – 35% home-price appreciation equals 175% appreciation of your 20% cash down-payment (before closing costs); 2) big tax deductions subsidize home ownership costs, and 3) the capital gains exclusion on the sale of a primary residence.

Important: Timing is everything in investing. In this analysis, the chosen buy date was January 2, 2012 when the financial and housing markets were poised for big rebounds. Picking a different purchase date, such as January 2, 2008, would completely alter the results. *

SP-OP_DOM_by-MonthWhite Hot Spring Market
The hotter the competition between buyers, the higher home prices are bid up. The great majority of SF home listings are selling quickly and for over – sometimes far over – asking price.

This link charts the trend over the past 2+ years.
Sales Price over List Price Trend

 

Paragon-Survey_Home-BuyersCurrent Buyer & Seller Dynamics
Since Paragon does so much business in San Francisco – our Van Ness branch represents more successful SF home-buyers than any other office – we surveyed our agents on what they were seeing in the market. This chart looks at buyers, and this link goes to our full survey report:
Paragon Agent Survey

 

 

New-Home_ConstructionNew Housing Construction
A look at the ebb and flow of new housing development in the city – which is generally very inadequate to growing demand.

And this link looks at the “pipeline” of projects under construction or planned for future years:
New Homes Pipeline

 

 

Ranking_San-Francisco_4-14Ranking San Francisco
On a lighter note, we recently collected rankings by dozens of “authorities” – some more reliable than others – regarding San Francisco. This link goes to the full list:
The Full Ranking Report

 

 

Invest_SF-Rents_by-NeighborhoodApartment Building Market Report
We just issued our quarterly update on Bay Area residential investment real estate. This chart looks at current asking rents by neighborhood, and this link goes to the full report:
Paragon Apartment Update

 

 

Since opening our doors in 2004, the Paragon Community Fund has donated over $500,000 to local charities and social services. The San Francisco Bay Area isn’t just where we do business; it’s our home and our community.

* The investment analysis above is simply one scenario based on specific circumstances. It was performed in good faith, but may contain errors or assumptions you may disagree with, or may not apply to your specific tax situation. Investment and tax issues should be investigated with a qualified accountant or financial planner.

Prices Jumping Across San Francisco

April 2014 Real Estate Market Report
The San Francisco real estate market grew increasingly frenzied as the first quarter of 2014 progressed, leading to another surge in home prices in virtually every neighborhood in the city. The high-demand/ extremely-low-inventory/ competitive-bidding situation is similar to what occurred first in spring 2012 and then, to an even higher degree, in spring 2013. After the market seemed

April 2014 Real Estate Market Report
The San Francisco real estate market grew increasingly frenzied as the first quarter of 2014 progressed, leading to another surge in home prices in virtually every neighborhood in the city. The high-demand/ extremely-low-inventory/ competitive-bidding situation is similar to what occurred first in spring 2012 and then, to an even higher degree, in spring 2013. After the market seemed to stabilize in the second half of last year, we didn’t expect to see it turn this fierce in early 2014, but right now it appears to be every bit as ferocious as last spring’s.

Of major metro areas, the new Gallup-Healthways survey ranked SF-Oakland second in the nation (behind San Jose-Santa Clara) on their index for “well-being.” Though already the second most densely populated city in the country (after NYC), San Francisco simply has many more people wanting to live here than there are homes available to rent or buy.

Sales over Asking Price
The heated competition for new listings coming on market has resulted in an astounding percentage of sales occurring above, and often far above, list price.

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This chart below breaks down, by neighborhood, the average sales price to list price percentage for the 90% of homes selling without price reductions. Of the areas assessed, Bernal Heights came out on top with sales prices averaging an incredible 21% over list prices over the past 2 months. 
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Median Sales Price Spikes
Typically, the first quarter of the year does not show a dramatic increase in median sales prices over the previous quarter – in fact, a decline in not unusual due to holiday market dynamics. But the first quarter of 2014 saw large spikes in median prices for both houses and, especially, condos in San Francisco.

This next chart is a look at quarterly median price appreciation over the past 3 years.

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Longer-term trends: While virtually the whole country has been experiencing a large market rebound, San Francisco, because of our particular economic circumstances, is generally outperforming almost every other market area. The big exception is Silicon Valley, whose high home appreciation rate is being driven by many of the same employment and demographic causes as here in the city.
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Far Too Little Inventory

When the market recovery began in earnest in early 2012, there were complaints of a shortage in inventory. In 2013, the market grew even more heated and supply declined further to what felt like desperately low levels. Now in 2014, amid no lessening of demand that we perceive, the supply of SF homes available to purchase has dropped again.
There are increasing numbers of new-construction housing units coming on market – and many more being planned and built – but so far they’re being snapped up, at very high prices, without noticeably altering the supply and demand dynamic.

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Listings Selling Faster than Ever
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San Francisco Neighborhood Snapshots
We updated analyses for a number of city neighborhoods with enough sales for quarterly data to be meaningful. In every district we looked at, there were significant spikes in median sales prices and/or average dollar per square foot values in the quarter just ended.

Below are two samples, but our full collection of long-term neighborhood analyses can be found here (some updated through the first quarter, others through the end of 2013):
San Francisco Neighborhood Values

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Affordability by Neighborhood
We broke the city down by neighborhood according to the number of house and condo sales in each price segment. Below are 3 analyses from our 11-chart report, which can be found in its entirety here:
Where Can I Afford to Buy in San Francisco

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Paragon Featured in New Ranking Report
The new RealTrends 500 report ranking the sales statistics of the 500 largest residential brokerages in the country for 2013 sales was just published. After 10 years in business, Paragon came in #3 in average sales per agent and #4 in average sales price in the national ranking.

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