Current SF Home Value Tables by Neighborhood

For access to all our market analyses: Paragon Market Reports

These tables report average and median sales prices and average dollar per square foot values, along with average home size and units sold, by property type and bedroom count for a variety of San Francisco neighborhoods. If you are interested in data for a neighborhood not listed, please contact us. The tables follow the map in the following order: houses by bedroom count, condos by bedroom count, and 2-unit and 3-4 unit building sales. Within each table, the neighborhoods are in order of median sales price.

The analysis is based upon sales reported to San Francisco MLS between June 1, 2014 and January 27, 2015. Value statistics are generalities that are affected by a number of market factors – and sometimes fluctuate without great meaningfulness – so all numbers should be considered approximate. Medians and averages often disguise a huge range of values in the underlying individual sales.

“m” signifies millions of dollars; “k” signifies thousands; N/A means there wasn’t enough data for reliable results. Expanding your screen view to zoom 125% will make the map and charts that much easier to read.

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Note: The surge in expensive, new-condo construction sales in various areas, such as Hayes Valley, Potrero Hill, Inner Mission and the Market Street and Van Ness Avenue corridors, is significantly affecting (raising) the average and median values in those neighborhoods.

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These statistics apply only to home sales with at least 1 car parking. Homes without parking typically sell at a significant discount. Below Market Rate (BMR) condos were excluded from the analysis.

As noted on the tables, the average size of homes vary widely by neighborhood. Besides affluence, the era and style of construction often play a large role in these size disparities. Some neighborhoods are well known for having “bonus” bedrooms and baths built without permit (often behind the garage). Such additions can add value, but being unpermitted are not reflected in square footage and $/sq.ft. figures.

If a price is followed by a “k” it references thousands of dollars; if followed by an “m”, it signifies millions of dollars. Sales unreported to MLS are not included in this analysis, and where abnormal “outliers” were identified that significantly distorted the statistics, these were deleted as well. N/A signifies that there wasn’t enough reliable data to generate the statistic.

The Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by “unusual” events or by changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in value. The median sale price for an area will often conceal a wide variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales. Average sales prices may be distorted by one or two sales significantly higher or lower than the normal range. All numbers should be considered approximate.

Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, storage, unfinished attics and basements; rooms and apartments built without permit; decks, patios or yards. These figures are typically derived from appraisals or tax records, but can be unreliable, measured in different ways, or unreported altogether: thus consider square footage and $/sq.ft. figures to be very general approximations. Size and $/sq.ft. values were only calculated on listings that provided square footage figures. All things being equal, a house will have a higher dollar per square foot than a condo (because of land value), a condo’s will be higher than a TIC (quality of title), and a TIC’s higher than a multi-unit building’s (quality of use). All things being equal, a smaller home will have a higher $/sq.ft. than a larger one.

Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in general statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, views, amenities, outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so forth. Thus, how these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis. Data is from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision.

These links below can be used to access other real estate reports and articles.

Neighborhood Market Reports *** Information for Buyers ***

Information for Sellers
SAN FRANCISCO REALTOR DISTRICTS
District 1 (Northwest): Sea Cliff, Lake Street, Richmond (Inner, Central, Outer), Jordan Park/Laurel Heights, Lone Mountain

District 2 (West): Sunset & Parkside (Inner, Central, Outer), Golden Gate Heights

District 3 (Southwest): Lake Shore, Lakeside, Merced Manor, Merced Heights, Ingleside, Ingleside Heights, Oceanview

District 4 (Central SW): St. Francis Wood, Forest Hill, West Portal, Forest Knolls, Diamond Heights, Midtown Terrace, Miraloma Park, Sunnyside, Balboa Terrace, Ingleside Terrace, Mt. Davidson Manor, Sherwood Forest, Monterey Heights, Westwood Highlands

District 5 (Central): Noe Valley, Eureka Valley/Dolores Heights (Castro, Liberty Hill), Cole Valley, Glen Park, Corona Heights, Clarendon Heights, Ashbury Heights, Buena Vista Park, Haight Ashbury, Duboce Triangle, Twin Peaks, Mission Dolores, Parnassus Heights

District 6 (Central North): Hayes Valley, North of Panhandle (NOPA), Alamo Square, Western Addition, Anza Vista, Lower Pacific Heights

District 7 (North): Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow, Marina

District 8 (Northeast): Russian Hill, Nob Hill, Telegraph Hill, North Beach, Financial District, North Waterfront, Downtown, Van Ness/ Civic Center, Tenderloin

District 9 (East): SoMa, South Beach, Mission Bay, Potrero Hill, Dogpatch, Bernal Heights, Inner Mission, Yerba Buena

District 10 (Southeast): Bayview, Bayview Heights, Excelsior, Portola, Visitacion Valley, Silver Terrace, Mission Terrace, Crocker Amazon, Outer Mission

Some Realtor districts contain neighborhoods that are relatively homogeneous in general home values, such as districts 5 and 7, and others contain neighborhoods of wildly different values, such as district 8 which, for example, includes both Russian Hill and the Tenderloin.

Seasonality in the San Francisco Homes Market

Seasonality typically affects inventory levels, buyer demand and median home prices, often in significant ways – as is illustrated in the following charts. However, it is not theonly factor affecting market conditions and trends – general economic conditions and financial market movements, new construction projects coming on market, significant changes in interest rates, local stock market IPOs, natural and political events, and other factors can and do impact the market as well, sometimes quite suddenly. It should also be noted that new listings and new sales occur every month of the year – and sometimes, depending on prevailing market conditions and the specific property, buying or selling during the slower periods can be the smart strategy.

Because there are typically summer and winter slowdowns, it’s difficult to come to definitive conclusions about the condition and direction of the market during July/August, and December/January. One really has to wait for the autumn market to begin in mid-September with the typical surge of new listings, or the spring market to begin in late February/March to get a sense of the ongoing dynamics of supply and demand, and how it will affect home price movements.

The devil’s always in the details, and the details of the market change constantly. Still, there is a typical ebb and flow to the level of activity in the market that correlate with seasonality, and that is what this report explores from a variety of angles.

Without inventory and buyers wanting to purchase, there is no market. These first 4 charts show the classic effects of seasonality on supply and demand.

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Buyer Demand

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As seen in this next chart, the higher-price end of the market is usually more affected by seasonality that the general market. Among other effects, this will usually raise the median sales price during the peak spring and autumn selling periods, and lower them in the slower periods of summer and mid-winter (as delineated in the final chart).

Note: In the chart, the changes up and down in sales are plotted based upon the sales of January 2013 equaling a base line of 100. This is a very approximate illustration, because of other factors that affect the analysis, though we do believe it reflects the market reality.

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These final 2 charts illustrate both the rapidly appreciating real estate market since 2012 and the shorter term ups and downs that seasonality can play in median home prices. For the last few years, spring has been the season of the greatest market frenzy, which shows up in Sales Price to List Price ratios and median price jumps. Of course, in an appreciating or depreciating market, there are usually other factors impacting median sales prices beside seasonality – as always, what is most meaningful is the longer term trend in home prices, not short-term fluctuations.

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Fluctuations in median sales prices are not unusual and these fluctuations can occur for other reasons besides changes in value, such as seasonality; inventory available to purchase; availability of financing; changes in buyer profile; and changes in the distressed and luxury segments. How these statistics apply to any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis. All data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision.

3 Years into the Recovery: San Francisco Real Estate as 2015 Begins

San Francisco Real Estate Cycles, 1984 – 2014

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The 2 charts above look at the last 30 years of real estate cycles, and also compare percentage appreciation during the first 3 years of recent market recoveries (the light blue columns in the 2nd chart). Appreciation since 2012 has occurred somewhat faster than the other recoveries since 1980, but it is also coming off a much larger crash than earlier cycles. Typically, recoveries, and the upswings in appreciation they engender, have lasted 5 to 7 years – which is no guarantee how our current cycle will play out.

The chart below graphs the quarterly path of median house price appreciation in San Francisco since 2012, illustrating shorter-term seasonal cycles. Condo prices in the city followed a similar trajectory, though at somewhat lower values: In the latest quarter, the median condo sales price was just the tiniest bit under $1 million.

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Neighborhood Affordability
Below are 2 of 12 charts in our updated analysis of What Costs How Much Where in San Francisco. These are meant as a general guide for buyers as to where to find the greatest choice of home listings in their price range – and to open up neighborhood options they perhaps hadn’t been aware of.

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San Francisco’s Luxury Home Market

Over the past 3 years, the luxury home market has outperformed the overall market as wealth dramatically surged in the Bay Area. In the last 15 years or so, the high-end market segment has been spreading from the classic, northern prestige neighborhoods – such as Sea Cliff, Pacific Heights, Russian Hill – to other districts of the city, such as those surrounding South Beach and Noe Valley.

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New Construction in San Francisco
These 2 charts are from our San Francisco Development Report, excerpting the highlights of the SF Planning Department’s new Pipeline Report of residential and commercial real estate projects. Almost 7,000 residential units (sale, rental and social-project) and several million square feet of new commercial space are currently under construction in the city, with much more coming in the next few years (absent some large, negative economic event occurring).

Adding large quantities of new inventory should eventually affect the recent, high-appreciation dynamic for both sale and rental markets in the city, but so far, population, employment, wealth and buyer demand has continued to outpace supply. Also, the great majority of new-home construction intended for sale is for high-end, ultra-modern condos costing $1000 – and sometimes much more – per square foot, so how that surge in inventory will affect other segments of the SF market – such as for houses or Edwardian condos – is unclear.

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How the Bay Area Spends its Money
On a lighter note, and to take a brief break from real estate, these two charts, which we’ve just added to our recent Bay Area Demographics Report, compare how we spend our money as compared to national averages.

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Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)
Low inventory remains a huge issue in the San Francisco market. Typically, the year begins with the lowest number of listings, which then gradually increases into spring. In the past 3 years, buyers have woken up from the holidays much more quickly than sellers have put their homes on the market. This set the stage for the city’s early spring market frenzies in 2012, 2013 and 2014. In the second half of 2014, home prices plateaued or even dropped a little in the more expensive housing segments, while continuing to tick up in more affordable areas.

What 2015 has in store for the market will become clearer in the next few months.

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Mortgage Interest Rates
One of the big factors underlying the market’s strength in recent years has been extraordinarily low interest rates, which have a tremendous effect on the ongoing, monthly cost of housing. In 2010, pundits almost universally predicted interest rates would rebound to 6% or higher, but instead rates dropped until hitting a low point in mid-2013 of about 3.5%. After fluctuating up and down a bit since, interest rates at the start of 2015 were somewhat below 4% – incredibly low by any historical standard.

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All data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision. Statistics are generalities and how they apply to any specific property is unknown without a tailored comparative market analysis. All numbers should be considered approximate. Please contact us with any questions or concerns.

© 2015 Paragon Real Estate Group